xpang@pku.edu.cn
Room B216
Pang Xun

Professor, Department of National Security Studies 

Director, Peking University Global Risk Politics Analysis Lab

Current Positions
Tenured Full Professor, School of International Studies,  Peking University University, 2022-now
Director, PKU Analystics Lab for Global Risk Politics, 2022-now


Past Positions

Tenured Full Professor, Department of International Relations,Tsinghua University, 2016-2022 

Full Professor, Department of International Relations,Tsinghua University, 2014-2016

Associate Professor, Department of International Relations,Tsinghua University, 2012-2014

Assistant Professor, Department of Politics, Princeton  University, 2010-2012
Founding Director, Tsinghua International Relations Data & Computing Lab, 2017-2022
Resident Scholar, the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, 2013-2022
Vice Dean, Institute for International Relations, 2016-2020
Vice Chair, Department of International Relations, 2015-2018
Co-director, the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, 2013-2016
Visiting Associate Research Scholar, the Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance, Princeton School of Public and International Affairs, 2019

 

Education

Washington University in St. Louis Ph.D. in Political Scienc

Peking University M.A. in International Relations

Peking University B.A. in International Relations & B.A. in Economics

Professional Activities

Editorial Board Member, Political Analysis, 2025-
Associate Editor, Political Analysis, 2018-2025
Associate Editor, Japanese Journal of Political Science, 2019-now
Associate Editor, World Politics, 2011-2013
Committee Chair, John T. Williams Prize Committee, the Society for Political Methodology, 2018-2019
Committee Member of 

  • Degree Committee in Social Sciences, Tsinghua University, 2015-2022
  • Program Committee of Annual Meeting of
  • Asian Political Methodology, 2013-now
  • Internationalization Committee, the Society for
  • Methodology. 2019-2022
  • Gosnell Prize Committee, the Society for Political Methodology. 2013-2015
  • Diversity Committee, the Society for Political Methodology. 2011-2013
  • Poster Award Committee, the Society for Political Methodology. 2010-2011

Statistical Consultant, Social Science Computing Facility, Washington University in St. Louis. 2006-2009

Research Interestes

Global risk politics, geopolitics of economy and technologies, statistical methods, and AI forn social science

Monographs

  • Global Risk Politics in the Age of Anxiety and Rage: The Logic of “Hot Politics” in Security and Governance, Peking University Press, forthcoming
  • BRICS Development Aid Cooperation in Global Governance, World Affairs Press, 2016

Selected Articles

  • Qinqian He, Xun Pang, Yaqian He, Yekai Xu, and Matthew H. Connolly: "Agricultural Geography and International Water Conflict: Evidence from Remotely Sensed Data, " InternationalStudies Quarterly, Volume 69, Issue 3, 2025

  • James R. Hollyer, Xun Pang, (co-first author) B. Peter Rosendorff, and James Raymond Vreeland, “Can International Organizations Promote Transparency?” Political Science Research and Methods, Forthcoming

  • Shiqi Tang and Xun Pang: " Artificial Intelligence and International Relations Studies: Bring the Human Back In", International Politics Studies (In Chinese), Issue 3, 2025.

  • Xun Pang: "Global Order and AI Alignment: A Perspective of International Relations," Theoretical Frontier (In Chinese), Issue 9, 2025.  

  • Licheng Liu and Xun Pang, “A Bayesian Multifactor Spatio-Temporal Model for Estimating Time-Varying Network Interdependence”, Political Science Research and Methods, 11(4), 2023, pp:823-837

  • Shiqi Tang and Xun Pang, ``Comprehensive Security: Risk and Its Political Logic", International Politics Studies (in Chinese), Issue 6, 2022. 

  • Xun Pang, ``Innovative Academic Community: The Mission and Spirit of the Social Science Laboratory," Universities and Disciplines (in Chinese), No.4, 2022. 

  • Xun Pang, Licheng Lu, and Yiqing Xu,  ``A Bayesian Alternative to Synthetic Control for Comparative Case Studies" , Political Analysis, 2022, vol. 30, no.2: 269–288

  • Xun Pang, ``Identification and Credibility in Social Science Research," China Social Science Review (in Chinese), Issue 3, 2021. 

  • Xun Pang and Qingqian He, ``Mapping the International System: A Network Analysis of Structural Power in Production Networks," Social Sciences in China (in Chinese), Issue 9, pp.26-46, 2021. 

  • Shuai Wang and Xun Pang, ``Global Value Chains and Political Risk to Foreign Direct Investment,"  World Economy and Politics (in Chinese), No.8, pp. 134-154, 2021.    

  • Xun Pang and Chong Chen, ``The Hirschman Effect of China’s Bilateral Cross-Currency SWAP Agreements,"  {\em World Economy and Politics}  (in Chinese), No.6, pp.132-155, 2020.

  •  Chong Chen and Xun Pang, ``Spatial-Temporal Patterns of Terrorist Attacks in Africa: A Split Population Duration Modeling with Geocoded Data,"  {\em Foreign Affairs Review}  (in Chinese), No.2, pp.82-115, 2020.

  • Xun Pang and Ziye Liu, ``Tracing China-US Relationship with Machine-Coded Event Data: Reciprocity, Policy Inertia,  and Third Party's Influence," {\em World Economy and Politics}  (in Chinese),  No.5, pp.53-79, 2019. 

  •  Xun Pang and Shuai Wang ``The International Political Significance of Chinese and US Foreign Aid: As Seen in United Nations General Assembly Voting," (with Shuai Wang) {\em  Social Sciences in China} , Vol.39, No.1, pp.5-33, 2018. 

  • Xun Pang and Shuai Wang, ``The International Influence of China's Foreign Aid: The Case of Vote-Buying in the United Nations General Assembly," {\em  Social Sciences in China}  (in Chinese),  No.3, pp.181-203, 2017. 

  • Xun Pang, ``Revealing Biases in the Power of Indicators: A Causal Analysis of the IEG Ratings of Aid Project Implementation Performance,"  {\em World Economy and Politics}  (in Chinese), No.11, pp.130-155, 2017. 

  • Xun Pang, ``Statistical Prediction in International Relations: An Example of Conflict Prediction," {\em Quarterly Journal of International Politics} (in Chinese), Vol.2, No.3, pp.1-32, 2017. 

  •  Xun Pang, Lida Liu and Stephanie Ma, ``China's Network Strategy for Seeking Great

  • Power Status,"  {\em The Chinese Journal of International Politics},  Volume 10, Issue 1, pp.1-29, 2017.

  • Xun Pang, ``Shared Challenges and Solutions: The Common Future of Comparative Politics and Quantitative Methodology," {\em Chinese Political Science Review}, Vol.1, No.3, pp. 472-488, 2016.

  • Xun Pang, ``A Bayesian Dynamic Model for Analyzing Path-Dependence," {\em Social Science Research}  (in Chinese), Vol.1, Issue. 1, 2016.

  • Stephen Chaudoin,  Helen V. Milner, and Xun Pang, ``International Systems and Domestic Politics: Linking Complex Theories with Empirical Models in International Relations,''  International Organization,  Volume 69, Issue 2, pp.275-309, 2015.

  • Xun Pang and Yikun He, ``US Hegemony and International Institutions: 'Power-vs-Autonomy' in Regional Development Banks," World Economics and Politics (in Chinese), No.9, 2015.

  • Xun Pang and Jiayun Quan, ``Understanding and Measuring Relational Power: A Network Strategy,''  {\em World Economics and Politics}  (in Chinese), No. 6, pp.39-64, 2015.

  • Xun Pang, ``Varying Responses to Common Shocks and Complex Cross-Sectional Dependence: Dynamic Multilevel Modeling with Multifactor Error Structures for Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data,''  Political Analysis, Vol. 22, Issue 4, pp.464-496, 2014.

  • Xun Pang, ``Ethnic Minority Rule and Civil War: A Bayesian Dynamic Multilevel Analysis,''  in Ivan Jeliazkov and Xin-She Yang edt. {\em Bayesian Inference in the Social Sciences}, ISBN: 978-1-118-77121-1. John Wiley \& Sons, Inc. pp. 39-66, 2014. 

  • Xun Pang and Yikun He, ``Why Foreign Aid is an Ineffective Tool of Foreign Policy: Bureaucratic Politics and U.S. Foreign Assistance,'' Foreign Affairs Review  (in Chinese), No. 3, pp.107-135, 2014.

  • Xun Pang, ``Misunderstandings of Quantitative Methods: Concepts, Principles, and Practices,'' {\em World Economics and Politics}  (in Chinese), No.1, pp.5-25, 2014.

  • Xun Pang, ``Emerging Donors: A Vertical Paradigm of Foreign Development Aid,'' {\em World Economics and Politics}  (in Chinese), No.5, pp.31-54, 2013.

  • Xun Pang, Barry Friedman, Andrew D. Martin and Kevin  M. Quinn,``Endogenous Jurisprudential Regimes,'' Political Analysis, Vol. 20, No.3, pp. 417-436, 2012.   

  • Xun Pang, ``Strategies for Solving Collective Action Problems in Global Public Goods Provision,''  {\em World Economics and Politics}  (in Chinese), No.7, pp.24-42,  2012.

  • Xun Pang, ``Modeling  Heterogeneity and Serial Correlation in Binary TSCS Data: A Bayesian Multilevel Model with AR(p) Errors,''  {\em Political Analysis}, Vol.18, No.4, pp.470-498, 2010.

  • Xun Pang, ``Energy Security as International Politics,''  {\em Quarterly Journal of International Politics}  (in Chinese), No.2, pp.64-89,  2007.

  • Xun Pang ``Role, Identify, and Foreign Policy Making: A Dynamic Analytical Framework,''  {\em International Politics Quarterly}  (in Chinese), No. 1, pp.133-143, 2006

  • Xun Pang ``Signaling Risk-Taking Willingness in Crisis Bargaining in International Relations,''  {\em World Economics and Politics}  (in Chinese), No.1, pp.89-97, 2005. 

  • Zicheng Ye and Xun Pang, ``A Comparative Study on  International Relations Theories in Modern Times and Wisdoms in the Ancient China,'' {\em World Economics and Politics}  (in Chinese), No.12, 2001.

 

Honors

  • Yangtze River Scholar Award (``Young Scholar" Category), the Ministry of Education, China, 2016 (Fellowship from 2016 to 2020).
  • The John T. Williams Dissertation Prize by the Society for Political Methodology} for the best dissertation proposal in political methodology, for ``A Bayesian Probit Hierarchical Model with AR(p) Errors and Non-nested Clustering: Studying Sovereign Creditworthiness and Political Institutions,'' 2009.
  • The Society for Political Methodology Poster Award for the Best Poster}presented at the Annual Meeting of the Society for Political Methodology, for ``Binary and Ordinal Time Series with AR(p) Errors: Bayesian Model Determination for Latent High-Order Markov Processes,'' 2009. 

Selected Grants

  • PI of  Key Program of National Social Science Fund of China, ``Theory and Methods for Predicting Geo-Political Risks," 2017-2022, RMB600,000.
  • PI of Area Studies Grants, the Ministry of Education of China,  `` International Security Studies: A Big Data Approach," 2017-2018, RMB100,000.
  • PI of Basic Research Grants, the Tsinghua University, 2012-2017, RMB500,000.
  • PI of Humanities and Social Sciences Research Fund, China's Ministry of Education, `` BRICS' Development Aid: Modalities, Strategies, and Cooperation,'' 2013-2017, RMB80,000.
  • PI of Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development Research Grant for ``Political Risk of Oversea Direct Investment by Enterprises in the Energy Industry,'' 2013-2014, RMB200,000.
  • PI of Research Grants, the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for GlobalPolicy,  ``The Rise of China and the Changing World,'' 2013-now, RMB 900,000.
  • PI of The Mamdouha S. Bobst Center for Peace and Justice, Princeton University, Faculty Research Grant, 2010-2011, USD7,000.
  • Co-PI of National Science Foundation Grant SES-0918320, ``Doctoral Dissertation Research: Discrete Time-Series Cross-Section Models of Political Economy,'' 2009-2010, USD7,000.
  • National Science Foundation Travel Support Award, annual conference of the Society for Political Methodology, University of IIowa, Iowa City, July, 2010.
  • National Science Foundation Travel Support Award, UseR annual conference, Rennes, France, July 8th-11th, 2009.
  • National Science Foundation Travel Support Award, annual conference of the Society for Political Methodology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, July, 2008.
     

Software
BPCausal: an R package for implementing Bayesian Alternative to Synthetic Control Method for Comparative Case Studies
BPNet: an R package for implementing Bayesian Multilevel Spatio-Temporal Model with Time-varying Autoregressive Coefficient and Multifactor Residuals 
GLMMarp: an R package for implementing the {\em GLMM-AR(p)} model developed in the dissertation project Dynamic Multilevel Analysis of Binary Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data in Political Economy